Ivan Timofeev

RIAC Report No. 37/2018

A Forecasting Report

RIAC Report #31 / 2017

RIAC and CSR Report

The ELN-RIAC Special Report

Report No. 24/2016

Russia’s preservation of its statehood and sovereignty again becomes the main stake of the conflict. The statehood of Ukraine is another stake

A response to Sergei Karaganov’s “A Difficult but Necessary Decision”

In relations between the Administration and Congress on Russia, there is still a relative consensus. Apparently, the Administration wants to keep a free hand in negotiations with Russia

Have emerging powers got the resources to reshape the world order?

The realism of foreign policy remains relevant

Russia’s Path to the ‘World Majority’

Friendly countries are still unlikely to be ready to act as “black knights” in the form which was acceptable in the 20th century. Russia must first of all rely on its own forces

The further escalation of sanctions against Russia is inevitable

In the modern world, only two countries can be distinguished which combine both significant material potential and their own political philosophy: the US and China

Even before February 2022, Brussels intended to significantly increase its capacity in the field of economic restrictions. The appointment of a special representative on sanctions is one of the…

The hope for a new type of international relations based on mutual benefit, unfortunately, is unlikely to materialise in the foreseeable future

Sanctions now become exclusively a mechanism for causing damage

We can talk about the relative novelty of the sanctions in terms of the number and intensity of the measures applied. However, for a number of qualitative characteristics, they contain patterns that…

The conflict between Russia and the West is likely to drag on for decades, regardless of how and along exactly what lines the conflict in Ukraine ends

The experience of US law enforcement practice shows that there will be violations of the sanctions regime, and US regulators have developed mechanisms for detecting them

Russia amid the current conditions has no choice but to radically restructure the mechanisms of its financial and trade relations with foreign countries

In the context of Euro-Atlantic solidarity amid Russia’s opposition, the issue of EU financial sovereignty in relations with the United States is likely to fade into oblivion

In fact, the sellers’ market is being changed into the buyers’ market by artificial political methods rather than for economic reasons

The door will close, but the window will remain open for a time being

Relations between Russia and Ukraine are at risk of entering the ranks of long-term conflicts, similar to relations between India and Pakistan, or North and South Korea

It is necessary to be ready for a scenario where the property of individuals and structures in the EU is confiscated, as well as their criminal prosecution in certain EU countries for violating…

In the context of the sanctions tsunami, Russia will have to face the good old practice of bans and “jarligs”, recalling the experience of the Horde

Reliable and uninterrupted maritime transit of people and cargo to the Kaliningrad Region has become a particularly pressing issue

The decline of the Russian economy is not beneficial to China

Sanctions against Patriarch Kirill make the conflict between Russia and the West a clash of religious values

The pacification of Russia for the West has become a task that clearly goes beyond the boundaries of the post-Soviet and even the Euro-Atlantic space

The next packages will be less spectacular, but they will be detrimental to specific businesses and areas of the economy

The victorious march of the authorities of the US, the EU, and other countries over the fragments of Russian property gives rise to legitimate fears among investors from other countries

Today’s top three challenges Russia has to tackle

For most of Russia’s neighbours, the conflict between Moscow and Kiev opens up great opportunities

The inclusion of sanctions in the formula for a compromise on Ukraine is quite possible. Total pessimism is hardly desirable here

The new stage of the Ukrainian crisis will have global consequences. For some, it will bring short and medium-term costs, and very significant ones. For many, however, it will create opportunities to…

The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario

The introduction of amendments to the United Kingdom's sanctions legislation on Russia on the day of the visit was unlikely to achieve any results other than prompting cold restraint from Moscow

In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails

The main task for Russia is to avoid excessive overexertion and, at the same time, not get bogged down in a costly confrontation, maintaining and using levers of pressure on the West where its own…

The most realistic scenario for the near future is that the collective West “ties up” Moscow’s demands for European security in endless consultations and agreements

The key intrigue of the coming year is the situation around Ukraine

No signs of an easing are foreseen for the key targets of US sanctions

The December round of sanctions continued the course of tough measures. Now the Belarusian leader faces two basic scenarios: low profile or a new round of escalation

In the United States, there is a renewed discussion about the advisability of expanding sanctions on Russian sovereign debt

The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?

In the near term, the collective West will remain a serious military-political and regulatory challenge for Russia. Overestimation of the degree of its extinction and underestimation of the existing…

Russia and the EU currently seem to be nowhere near even embarking on a path towards “Cold Partnership”. The EU and Russia will not be able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the…

Getting back to the deal will be difficult. It will be even more difficult to keep it

Restrictive measures against the Taliban now affect the country as a whole

No matter how the modern world order “crumbles”, the dimensions of the modern world cannot be reduced to mere security issues

The effect of US sanctions will be much stronger in comparison with the restrictive measures of the EU and other countries

The revision of the sanctions policy by the new administration cannot be called a revolution. The institutional arrangement will remain unchanged

In terms of urbanisation and lifestyle, late Soviet and post-Soviet #Russia were and are a Western society with all its attendant problems

What if the sides cross the “red lines” and the warning shots, for one reason or another, take a toll in human life?

The EU has its own sanctions agenda, resorting to restrictive measures far more often than all other countries and international organizations, except for the U.S.

US-China relations are unlikely to develop into an open conflict in the foreseeable future because the price would be too high for both sides

Russia and the United States are approaching the summit in strategic confrontation mode

New sanctions may turn out to be even more serious than the restrictive measures introduced last year in response to the situation around the presidential elections

The new US sanctions are still fraught with uncertainty. The key question is whether the United States is imposing restrictions on Russian sovereign debt obligations

The European Parliament resolution did not cause any fluctuations of the ruble or Russian blue chips. Why did this happen and should the resolution be taken seriously?

Investors have again started talking about "geopolitical risk"

Moscow believes that for JCPOA talks to be successful, Washington and Tehran must synchronise their concessions: the former unfreezes Iranian assets and lifts sanctions, the latter is gradually…

The main priority remains the development of the EU’s own sanctions policy

What does the EU sanctions policy actually look like? How often does the EU impose sanctions in comparison with other players? Who are they against?

As long as the nation-state remains a key player in the international arena, even targeted sanctions will affect state interests

Russia and the EU have ceased to experiment with mutual illusions

Russia has accumulated a number of “toxic assets”, which could potentially become a reason for new sanctions

Strategically, Washington risks losing the ability to influence the PRC through the American model of globalisation and stands to get a powerful adversary and competitor in the future. If earlier it…

Joseph Biden is rare among the presidents-elect of the past few decades in that he has failed to inspire false hopes and expectations in Moscow

National security interests will increasingly influence the competition between technology platforms in a wide variety of areas

The financial sector is under special risk

Three key risks for Russia

The most important task for the diplomacy of Washington and Beijing will be the fight for major players

Political crises and controversies regarding a number of issues hardly set aside the need to build trust on specific issues, without mentoring, arrogance and sarcasm on either side

The worst scenario for the United States is the consolidated actions of Moscow and Beijing on military-technical cooperation with Iran on the basis of Resolution 2231

Serious political crisis around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program became the most significant event in recent times

it is not uncommon for the United States to impose sanctions on its own allies and even American companies

By pushing the Chinese elite from the global space, the Americans are diluting their influence over China

One of the notable events in July was the imposition by Britain of restrictions on a number of Russian and foreign officials in the area of human rights. This was London’s first independent…

Are We in for Epidemics of Sanctions?

The problem of sanctions cannot be eliminated without fundamental changes to the global financial system

The near future will show their reliability or, conversely, fragility in the face of the new competition of large players

Donald Trumps order, apparently, is connected with the “Afghan dossier” of the ICC

One can’t underestimate the efforts of the congressmen

The speed of the confrontation is accelerating, and it will be extremely difficult to soften its inertia

Laying the blame on the WHO, China or Russia will not solve the problems of US health care and is unlikely to help in the fight against the disease

Individual exemptions will have no effect without significant systemic changes introduced at least for the period of the pandemic

In a worst-case scenario, the Americans’ excessive use of sanctions and other measures for political purposes will make anarchy an attractive means to preserve sovereignty

Threats for Russia: From the Past to the Future

Modern man will have to face ultramodern and pre-modern structures simultaneously

The problem with the Munich Conference report is that it completely ignores the motivation of non-Western countries in acting in one way or another. In essence, it reduces the problem to a political…

The risk of sanctions will persist regardless of success in resolving the trade war

The US Department of State campaigning is doing more harm to the US-led globalization efforts in the field of ICT than all the hackers and cyber spies put together

Time is working for Washington. Iran also has trump cards

The key question is, would these sanctions really work and would Europeans abide by the U.S. restrictions?

Brussels, Beijing, Moscow and other capitals are increasingly unhappy about the US free-wheeling